On the podcast-only segment of Breaking Battlegrounds, Chuck and Sam discussed the recent Supreme Court ruling, which upheld a pre-territorial ban on abortions in Arizona, stirring significant controversy. They analyzed how this ruling has become a pivotal issue in Arizona’s political landscape, potentially impacting voter preferences in favor of Democrats. Delving into proposed abortion measures, they highlighted the Democrats’ plan to push a 24-week abortion proposal, allowing late-term abortions and including instances of race and gender-based abortions. The conversation explored public opinion polling on these measures, revealing significant opposition to such provisions. Chuck and Sam also examined the potential implications of legislative leadership actions and the challenges of navigating this divisive issue within Arizona politics. Listen to this discussion on Breaking Battlegrounds beginning at 51 minutes and 17 seconds.
Begin listening at 51 minutes and 17 seconds:
Chuck Warren: Sam, why don’t you explain to our audience what happened in Arizona this week?
And then as a result, I went and paid for a poll from the Tyson Group, who does Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, and so forth.
Let’s talk about this for a minute.
Sam Stone: Yeah, obviously, folks, we’re talking about abortion, which is really the Democrats’ number one weapon in this election cycle.
And Arizona, obviously pre-Roe v. Wade, had a law in the books, a pre-territorial, or what they call territorial pre-statehood law.
Chuck Warren: We weren’t even a state yet.
Sam Stone: No, we weren’t a state when this law came into effect.
I think it was 1845, I may be wrong about that, don’t quote me on that one, but it was the 1800s when that came into effect.
It was basically not enforced in the 50s, 60s, 70s. So it was on the books but there is very little record of enforcement. Then obviously you have the Roe v Wade court ruling that overruled it.
Then as the Obergefell case came down, the Arizona legislature passed a law to limit abortion to 15 weeks except for certain exceptions, rape incest, life of the mother.
Unfortunately that way that bill was written, it did not repeal the pre-territorial ban and in fact some legislators may be squirming about this but it had language that specifically suggested that if Roe v. Wade was overturned that this 15-week ban would disappear and it would return to the territorial ban that was deliberately written into it by pro-life activists here.
So then of course when Obergefell overturned Roe v. Wade it instantly became a question of whether the 15-week law the legislature had passed a couple of years ago or this pre-territorial or pre-statehood ban would come into effect.
There’s been a long legal running case around this for a couple of years. It was actually carried forward I mean this is this is what I think a lot of our side is not getting the timing of this case the carrying of it forward came from the Democrat Attorney General Kris Mays.
Chuck Warren: Correct
Sam Stone: She wanted to make sure that this case did not die and we didn’t end up with the 15-week law in place.
Chuck Warren: And of course, Republicans are not smart enough to do a FOIA request about their communications on this, but we’ll maybe have somebody else do it.
Sam Stone: But leaving that aside, the court then just ruled that the 15-week law was not in effect because the pre-statehood ban was still on the books and was still law.
Now there’s a lot of contention against the members of the court that it was their timing no no this was the AG, the Democrat AG’s, timing. There’s a lot of contention that they ruled, a lot of conspiracies around why they made this ruling, but the fact of the matter is the ruling was, the ruling was entirely in line with the law as it was written. They did what they’re supposed to do as judges.
Chuck Warren: Right, follow the law.
Sam Stone: Right
Chuck Warren: Which means they weren’t Democrats.
Sam Stone: Right.
I mean because if they were Democrats they would have done what was politically convenient.
Chuck Warren: Which is just ignored it.
Sam Stone: Right yeah they would have said no the 15 week ban you know 15 week limit is in place.
Chuck Warren: Or even worse on or even worse on Democrat judicial philosophy I just don’t feel good about this.
Sam Stone: Right yeah so that’s what would have happened and obviously it didn’t they ruled.
This has completely roiled the races here in Arizona.
We knew immediately Arizona may be still a barely purple center right state, but it is very much a battleground.
And abortion is the singular issue that Democrats have that weighs very favorably for their side.
Chuck Warren: All they can talk about is abortion on January 6th.
Sam Stone: Right.
Chuck Warren: They have no other ideas.
Sam Stone: Well, nothing else they do is working.
Nothing else they do is functional.
So this is what they’ve got.
And so now there’s a question, what the legislature will do? The Republican-led legislature will do. Will they repeal the pre-statehood ban and then that would bring the 15-week law they passed into place.
Chuck Warren: And bring back the 15-week which they all agreed to recently.
Sam Stone: Yes yes
Chuck Warren: I mean so we’re not creating something new this is what would this is what’s the original agreement as of a couple years ago
Sam Stone: Right.
and there’s a lot of question about whether they’ll be able to do that or not. You know in two fronts, one you have a lot of Republicans in the legislature saying they won’t vote, you know, they’re comfortable with this ban. On the other side, you have Democrats saying well we don’t think the 15-week bill went far enough so we won’t vote for it. I think that’s a more dangerous position on the left than it is on the right because you’re letting it be illegal and leaving it in the case of the ballot initiative, which is still up in the air obviously for months. So that’s, I think, that’s a more dangerous play but at the end of the day you and I know and a lot of people understood by our guts that this would be an incredibly dangerous ruling for our candidates for our ability to continue to hold the Arizona legislature, and for our statewide candidates and federal office.
Chuck Warren: and let’s be blunt about this the pro-life groups in this country have no ability to carry an election.
Sam Stone: Well, they’ve proven that many times.
Chuck Warren: They have no ability.
So what they’re going to do is yell and scream about this, but they have no ability to defend these legislatures.
Sam Stone: They’ll fundraise on it.
They’ll pocket the money.
Chuck Warren: But they won’t do anything on it.
So, folks, so we had a poll done.
We issued it by the Tyson Group.
They do Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, a lot of national campaigns.
They are spot on. They’re a very good pollster.
600 sample here’s what it is…
On the presidential ballot they have Trump up plus six in Arizona on the Senate ballot Gallego over Kari Lake plus five.
54% of Arizonans believe the current abortion laws are too strict in Arizona.
The territorial ban, which they said was the rule of law here, only 24% of Arizonans support it, 62% oppose it.
When we ask the question, do you support returning to 15 weeks that we had previously, 59% support that, 24% oppose that.
And at the same thing, Democrats are pushing an initiative that would allow abortions up to 24 weeks. 54% support.
Sam Stone: But there are some vulnerabilities in their bill because they say 24 weeks but it is not 24 weeks.
Chuck Warren: But again Sam, you’re depending upon people to be smart.
Sam Stone: Right, I don’t expect us to be smart.
Chuck Warren: But it does have vulnerabilities.
Sam Stone: But if there was a good campaign, because this same poll points out, for instance that it allows gender, sex selective abortions, it allows race selective abortions all the way through…
Chuck Warren: To the end.
Sam Stone: to the end. All through the third trimester.
Chuck Warren: Absolutely, all that would be with a normal, rational, people running a campaign and truly educating voters. I think that gets defeated.
Sam Stone: and those numbers on those issues…
Chuck Warren: Pull those up Sam, while I keep talking.
So we also asked a question basically split down the middle. When is a reasonable time to have an abortion?
Arizona voters say 19% say never.There’s never a good time for abortion.
16% said six weeks. So basically six weeks or less, you’ve got, you know, 35%.
22% say 15 weeks, 17% say 24 weeks.
And there are 11% of people in Arizona who are absolutely evil, who believe you can have abortion up to a birth.
Those 11%, just avoid. They are painting smiley faces on the canals.
So Sam, what are the numbers? By the way, with the Supreme Court ruling, it encourages Arizonans to vote democrat than republican. It’s a plus 3 democrat now. Based on this ruling.
Sam Stone: Right, it shifted it by about four points in Democrats’ favor, which is enough to swing every competitive race here in Arizona, right?
So the measure that the Democrats are seeking to put on the ballot obviously would allow sex-based, gender-based abortions.
Those 69% of people oppose that. Only 15% think that that is right.
Likewise, the measure would allow race-based abortions.
71% think that’s wrong. 16% think that’s okay.
So quite frankly and then here, another question in it which I thought was good, Donald Trump recently expressed the opinion that Arizona has gone too far with the recent ruling suggesting that the Democrat governor will likely reinstate a more reasonable abortion law blah blah blah and pushing the legislature to do so right?
Do you agree or disagree with what he said?
56% of voters agree with what he said.
Only 16% disagree with what he said.
Chuck Warren: So folks, if you’re watching Arizona, really how this plays in the general election is what the Arizona legislature, specifically the Senate President Peterson and Speaker of the House Toma, if they’re able to go and bring this up for a vote and have it on the floor for a vote.
Right now they seem not willing to do it.
And so if they go bring up the vote, yes it may not pass, um, it won’t be surprising if democrats just all vote against it because they like this for political reasons. So you’re about ready to see rank hypocrisy on this on the floor probably.
Sam Stone: I think that’s very dangerous for them if they do it.
Chuck Warren: I agree, i agree … look these are the same people that voted against, voted against giving life in prison for child traffickers
Well, I mean, here in Arizona, they literally, every Democrat in the House voted against a bill, a referral, to give life in prison for child trafficking.
I want you to think about it.
Sam Stone: For-profit child sex trafficking.
Chuck Warren: Yeah, for-profit child sex trafficking.
*The Tyson Group conducted a survey between 4/10/24 – 4/11/24 targeting a representative sample of n=600 likely voters for the upcoming Arizona general election. The margin of error for this study is +/- 4%. Participants were recruited and surveyed using an online panel to gather their responses. The survey was commissioned and paid for by BreakingBattlegrounds.vote.
If you are a reporter and would like the crosstabs for this survey, please email [email protected].
