On Sunday, May 19, a helicopter carrying the president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, crashed, killing him, the minister of foreign affairs, and others onboard. All eyes turned to Israel immediately, wondering if it was a Mossad operation.
Since, an anonymous Israeli official told Reuters, “It wasn’t us.” We don’t know how senior or junior this official is, and whether he is in a position to know.
Israel has had a policy not to assassinate heads of government, however, all bets are off. Whether Israel continues to stick to this policy is an open question, just like everything else. A traumatized nation, Israelis are recalculating their risks and will be much more aggressive.
It is possible that Israel assassinated Raisi in response to the drone and missile barrage that Iran launched against the Jewish nation. This creates two problems for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The first problem is simple but terrifying for Iran’s leaders. After the helicopter went down, speculations over Israel’s involvement began. Iranians began celebrating and thanking Israelis assuming that it was their doing. The regime in Iran could once count on anti-Zionism to keep it in power. Now, its people are thanking the Israelis for killing their leaders.
The second problem relates to the first one. Israelis have a few Israeli spies inside Iran. Most of their agents are Iranians who hate their government and volunteer to help the Mossad or are blackmailed by Israelis who threaten to expose their corruption or personal life to their families.
This is a terrible liability but an inevitable one for the regime. If the Mossad only needed a few weeks to sabotage the helicopter of the president, no Islamic Republic official should feel safe. If you only need a month to kill the president, you can kill anyone.
The regime has done this to itself. Its rank and file hate it so much that they will volunteer to serve Israel. Its more senior officials are all so corrupt that they have no choice but to agree to help Israel to save themselves. And not just financially corrupt. They are also known for their moral corruption, cheating on their wives, and even secretly having second families. To save themselves from the wrath of their fearsome wives, they end up betraying the regime they serve.
If Israel was behind the death of Raisi, should it change anything? Yes. The next time Iran decides to attack Israel, everyone will think twice. Even though it won’t be the next president’s call, he will nonetheless have an incentive to convince the supreme leader out of it simply to save his own life. The same goes for the generals and the military.
More so, the regime will be even more suspicious of its close circle and paranoid about everyone in its ranks, from the flight mechanics to the top. More than before, it will purge its more competent personnel for stupid people it trusts so there would be no Israeli spies among them. That is good for everyone.
Note: the opinions expressed herein are those of Chuck Warren only and not his co-host Sam Stone or Breaking Battlegrounds’ staff.
